Projection Ties GTA 6 to $1 Billion in US Sick Days

An academic projection estimates that roughly 1.5 million American workers may call in sick to play GTA 6 on November 19. Economics professor José García Montalvo calculated that those absences could represent approximately $1 billion. However, the figure is not an official forecast of workplace absences.

According to the report, the projection covers people expected to skip work to explore Leonida at launch. The estimate was attributed to Montalvo in an International Business Times report covered by GameSpot. There is no indication that the 1.5 million cases represent absences that have already been requested or recorded.

The calculation uses an annual salary of $70,000 for each worker as its reference point. Based on that assumption, Montalvo arrives at an estimated impact of around $1 billion for the workday. The result therefore depends directly on the selected salary and the projected number of absences.

The estimate also suggests that Take-Two Interactive could make the same amount on November 19. GameSpot notes that this does not necessarily mean $1 billion will simply disappear from the American economy. In the outlet's framing, some of the money would be changing destinations as launch spending becomes concentrated around GTA 6's publisher.

That distinction matters because the projection does not measure a confirmed national loss. It combines a hypothesis about the number of absent workers with a specific salary reference. The result is best understood as an academic exercise about the launch's potential scale rather than a completed economic assessment.

The idea of a “GTA flu” has a precedent in GTA 5's September 2013 launch. At the time, an IGN poll found that 46% of nearly 11,000 respondents planned to take the day off to play. The expression presented the absence as a kind of illness tied to the game's arrival.

The 2013 poll also had clear limitations. Its participants were readers who chose to respond, and it measured intentions rather than actual absences in American cities. It therefore helps demonstrate audience enthusiasm but does not establish the size of any real workplace impact.

There are individual examples of players planning longer breaks. Streamer and father of three Bud Burruss told The Wall Street Journal in September that he intends to take a five-day vacation. Other people have shared similar plans on social media, according to the report.

Some couples have even drafted agreements and labeled certain approaches to playing the game as “cheating.” Soldiers at Fort Stewart in Georgia have also been offered some days off to play GTA 6. These cases do not confirm the nationwide projection, but they show that parts of the audience are already organizing their schedules around launch.

For players, the projection does not change GTA 6's date, price, platforms, or access. Its effect is different: it places time-off planning at the center of the conversation surrounding November 19. Scheduled vacations and authorized leave are also different from calling in sick to miss work.

It remains unknown how many Americans will actually stay home from work on launch day. It is also unclear how many absences will involve sick leave, vacation time, or other arrangements with employers. Take-Two's actual revenue on November 19 can likewise only be compared with the estimate once concrete figures are available.

Until then, the 1.5 million workers and the $1 billion impact should be treated as projections rather than guaranteed outcomes. The GTA 5 precedent and reports of planned leave explain why the calculation has attracted attention without validating its scale in advance. The information was published by GameSpot based on reporting from the International Business Times.